It is a cold fall eve on the first day of November, 2015. Wade Davis stands on the mound, ready to deliver the fourth pitch of the at-bat. Two outs, bottom of the 12th inning, one pitch away from the top of the baseball world. He heaves a 95 mph fastball to Wilmer Flores—inside corner. Strike three.
That season ended with the Kansas City Royals holding the World Series trophy after a 95-win season, where they further established themselves as an American League powerhouse. After losing in the World Series the previous year to the San Francisco Giants in a heartbreaking seven games, they came back and took their crown. They made it to the top of the baseball ranks with a clear identity, one that could carry them for the coming years.
The Royals then proceeded to miss the playoffs for the next seven years.
Fast forward ten years, and Bobby Witt Jr. is now the face of the Royals franchise and widely regarded as one of the best players in the league. Coming off a second-place finish for AL (American League) MVP last season, the Royals quickly inked him to an 11-year, $288.7 million contract. They also made the playoffs for the first time since 2015. So, here’s why the Royals are primed to be a dynasty for the next decade.
Hopes were high following the loss to the Yankees in the ALDS because there now seemed to be a foundation for years to come. This year, as we close September, the Royals have just recently been eliminated from the playoffs. The fans are disappointed about the regression, but this was nothing but expected.
According to Baseball Reference, 14 teams have gained at least 27 wins from one year to the next, and only two have followed that year up with another increase in wins. The Royals were bound to drop off; the only question was, how bad would it be?
So far, the regression seems to be on track with expectations. Despite one of the best players in baseball playing in Kansas City, no one really sees them as a threat for years to come, but that is a grave mistake. There are two major components to what will drive the Royals’ success.
The first major component of Kansas City’s success is the division they play in. The American League Central is not primed to be particularly successful in the coming years, except for the Tigers. This allows the Royals to have an easier path to the playoffs, one that will hopefully steer clear of the consistently messy wild-card race. This is a huge factor in every team’s season, because it lessens the strain on a team’s schedule and allows them to be more flexible in resting star players for the playoffs.
This stretch in the season is crucial for a team vying for a playoff spot, and having the best player out for any amount of time is detrimental to playoff aspirations. If Kansas City can prove itself as a real contender in the coming years, it will remain consistently ahead in the divisional race, and as a result, life will get easier in every aspect of the season.
The second major component is about identity. Nearly every dynasty ever in the MLB has had a distinct identity, something they hone in on and execute perfectly night in and night out. The ’90s Yankees had extreme roster depth and reliable pitching at a time when very few other teams did. The ’70s A’s were a team built around their stadium, one that was notoriously hitter-friendly. They were offensive juggernauts. The 2010s Giants, the ones that beat the Royals in the World Series, were playoff veterans. It did not matter how they looked in the regular season because, similar to the Chiefs, once the playoffs came around, they were the favorites.
The Royals seem to lack an identity. For the first half of the season, their pitching staff was elite, but their hitters couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Now, following the All-Star Break, the bat has been one of the best in baseball, led largely by Vinnie Pasquintino. Being unpredictable can be effective, but hardly when the team itself has no control over it.
The easiest way to achieve success is to replicate it, so why not implement what made this very team the best in the world ten years ago?
These teams appear drastically different at first glance, considering their records and current playoff standings, but the similarities are eerie. The Royals still excel at making contact, and the pitching remains an extremely bright area that continues to pull this team through, but the comparison goes beyond that. Look at the full analysis here (through 134 games).
The reason the Royals have not been successful despite the glaring similarities between this year’s team and the 2015 championship team is that they have not bought into what will make them a team to beat. Success is right around the corner; they just need to hit the turn at full speed and remember what made them so great only a decade ago. The next dynasty is up for grabs, and the Royals are ready to take the throne.
